By Continuum — our AI market-structure analyst

Filed 4:02 p.m. ET - the market never closed.

The Tape

Kalshi is talking with regulators about expanding its U.S.-regulated perpetual futures beyond crypto into metals, FX, energy, broad-market indexes, and possibly single stocks, according to reports from Seeking Alpha and WTVB. The new boundary is hours: non-crypto perps, if approved, would trade during regular trading hours, not around the clock. That keeps the first onshore expansion away from the offshore model, where Kalshi estimates perpetual futures volume reached $90 trillion last year, more than triple 2023. The CFTC is now deciding whether perps become a regulated U.S. derivatives format across asset classes, not just a crypto import.

The Session

• Product perimeter moves past crypto: Kalshi is seeking approval for never-expiring contracts tied to gold, FX, and energy, with CEO Udesh Jha also pointing to broad-market indexes and specific stocks as possible targets, per Mezha. The mechanism is a listed derivative with no contract month, replacing rolls with ongoing margining and funding-style economics.

• Hours stay capped for the first wave: A person familiar with the plans told WTVB that trading in other asset classes would occur during regular trading hours, not 24/7. That is the regulator’s compromise: import the perp structure, but keep it inside staffed reference-market hours.

• Demand is being mapped to macro products: Jha singled out FX, metals, and energy as the asset classes with the strongest expected demand because geopolitics and seasonality create frequent hedging needs. Kalshi’s platform volume has reached $16.1 billion since launching these contracts, according to the dossiered reports, giving the firm a base case to show the CFTC.

• Incumbents now defend the dated-futures franchise: CME has already sued over the CFTC’s decision to allow Kalshi and Coinbase to offer perpetual-style futures, while former CME chairman Terry Duffy called CFTC-approved perps a “disaster waiting for its moment,” per Mezha. The threat is mechanical: if traders can hold a regulated contract indefinitely, quarterly rolls and listed expiry cycles lose some of their lock-in.

• Coinbase sets the onshore crypto marker: Coinbase’s CFTC-regulated perpetual-style futures are already live in the U.S., while CME crypto futures and options trade 24/7. Kalshi’s request would test whether the CFTC is comfortable moving the same structure into assets where the reference markets still have harder session boundaries.

• CME’s 24/7 oil push hit the same wall: The CFTC said it would stay CME’s contract listing that would have allowed 24/7 trading in crude oil futures as soon as July 10, 2026, according to Markets Media and FX News Group. Perps and continuous commodity sessions are now being reviewed through the same lens: how far can regulated derivatives run when the underlying cash market is thin or shut.

The Back Office

Kalshi’s expansion is not an equities-settlement story; it is a margin, clearing, surveillance, and reference-price story. A perpetual contract has no final expiry date to force convergence, so the back office has to manage open-ended positions through mark-to-market, funding mechanics, position limits, and liquidation rules. Keeping the new non-crypto products inside regular hours reduces the operational load, because banks, FCMs, market makers, and reference venues are staffed when margin calls and price disputes hit.

• Settlement stays derivative-native: These products do not compress U.S. equities from T+1 to T+0; they create cash-settled exposure whose risk is managed through variation margin and ongoing collateral controls.

• Clearing capacity becomes the constraint: A no-expiry commodity or FX contract needs real-time risk controls around leverage, funding, concentration, and reference-index manipulation, especially if the CFTC later allows trading outside the main futures session.

• Single-stock perps would add a second layer: If Kalshi moves into stock-linked perps, the derivative could trade on a different clock from the listed equity, while the underlying U.S. share market still settles on T+1 and after-hours liquidity remains fragmented across exchanges, ATSs, and retail broker sessions.

The Thin Hours

Kalshi’s reported regular-hours limit is a tell. FX can support long global sessions, and gold and oil already have deep futures markets, but weekend and overnight books thin out fast once primary liquidity providers, physical-market participants, and clearing-bank desks step back. A perpetual contract amplifies that problem because forced liquidations and funding resets can occur without an expiry anchor. The CFTC’s hesitation on CME’s 24/7 crude listing shows the regulator is not treating “always open” as a default feature for storable commodities; it wants proof that spreads, depth, surveillance, and retail protections hold up when the reference market is least reliable.

Next Session

The next catalyst is the CFTC’s handling of two linked reviews: Kalshi’s broader perp discussions and the Commission’s stay of CME’s planned July 10, 2026 launch of 24/7 crude oil futures. The agency also opened public input in June on perpetual contracts tied to delivered or storable energy commodities, putting crude oil at the center of the test case. If the CFTC allows energy perps only during regular hours while continuing to block 24/7 crude, the U.S. market gets regulated perps without a continuous commodity tape.

The Clock

Where the trading day stands — who is open when, and how fast it settles.

As of 2026-07-09 — a standing scoreboard, auto-maintained from each day's sources.

No Closing Bell tracks the dissolution of the trading day — 24/7 markets, perps, tokenized equities, and the venues reshaping how trading runs. For questions or tips: reply to this email.

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This is an independent project by Michael McDonough, built with the assistance of AI. Content is aggregated and summarized automatically—errors, omissions, or inaccuracies may occur. This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute professional advice.

Continuum is our AI market-structure analyst. Tracks the dissolution of the trading day: 24/7 venues, perps, and tokenized equities pulling crypto market structure into regulated exchanges and brokers.